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Peru
The Camisea natural gas project involves the development of a gas field located in the remote Peruvian Amazon which contains an estimated 11 trillion cubic feet of gas and 600 million barrels of condensate. The project consists of extracting natural gas from Blocks 88A and 88B and transporting it to Lima and Callao, the capital city and main seaport, through two pipelines, one for dry gas and one for liquids. The upstream segment of the project includes the development of wells and transportation infrastructure to deliver gas to a processing and distribution facility. The midstream segment includes the construction of a plant to separate liquids and gases, a liquid fractionating plant, and the installation of re-injection equipment. The downstream segment consists of transportation and distribution pipelines that will deliver the gas to Lima and Callao. KEY POLITICAL AND DOWNSIDE RISKS Opposition from local and international organizations concerned about
the environmental and indigenous peoples impacts of the project causes
delays and political risk. OVERVIEW According to the Smithsonian Institute, the Camisea project is located in one of the world's most biologically diverse regions It is also located in territory that is legally recognized and titled as indigenous sanctuary for several nomadic isolated and uncontacted tribes. In view of its sensitive location, the Camisea project has historically experienced significant cost overruns, problematic contract negotiations and delays in the bidding process. The project has long been the object of activist opposition, with internationally - recognized human rights, conservation and indigenous peoples groups actively monitoring and/or opposing the project. Camisea has been on hold since 1998, when project sponsors Shell and Mobil withdrew from the project, after having invested over $250 million. Shell cited cost overruns and an inability to work out a vertical integration agreement with the government in its decision to pull out of the project, although some observers believe that significant environmental and social controversy also played a discernible role. Only recently, have contracts been signed with two new consortia. HISTORY OF OPPOSITION Since 1997, international organizations, including the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Rainforest Action Network, and Survival International have been monitoring the Camisea project. The project's environmental sensitivity and controversy could increase the project's cost of capital, as international organizations lobby public financiers to restrict their financing of the project. Already, export credit agencies such as the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation prohibit financing to projects like Camisea that are located in pristine tropical forests. The project has been a lightening rod for controversy because of a historical incident: in the 1980s, Shell, while conducting preliminary exploration in the region, exposed the Nahua indigenous tribe to a whooping cough and influenza epidemic that killed off an estimated 50% of the population. This historical incident has heightened the political sensitivity and risk associated with this project. TECHNICAL AND COMPLIANCE RISKS Camisea is located in the remote jungle east of the Andes while the main markets, Lima and Callao, are located west of the Andes. The engineering and logistical challenges associated with constructing 2 trans-mountain pipelines through dense jungle are further compounded by the region's ecological sensitivity. Peru's Petroleum Hydrocarbon Law expressly requires contractors to comply with all environmental standards and rules, and states that failure to do so may lead to contract termination.ii To reduce environmental risk and damage, former consortium leader Shell had committed not to build any roads into the Camisea region, electing instead to transfer its equipment and materials via helicopter and transport barges. Given the standards of environmental and protection set by the previous consortium, the new consortium faces the daunting task of having to meet and perhaps surpass those standards. POLITICAL INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE COST OF CAPITAL As a result of the recent election scandal, Standard & Poor's forecasts that foreign investment in Peru will be depressed, financing costs will remain high, economic reforms will stall, and the economy should slow to 3% growth next year. President Alberto Fujimori's election scandal, and his subsequent resignation and exile, has sparked fears that privatizations could be derailed as investment tapers off. Peru's risk rating has deteriorated in recent months, posing additional financing challenges to companies bidding for Camisea. Such political instability could increase the cost of capital for a project that has already been plagued by significant delays. NEW COMPANIES' RISK MANAGEMENT QUESTIONED When Shell withdrew from the Camisea project, the government divided Camisea into upstream and downstream segments, and re-tendered the bids. After lengthy delays, it awarded the concessions to two sole bidders, two separate consortia consisting of relatively small and inexperienced companies. The relative small size and lack of experience of the two new consortia suggests that they may not be able to finance the investments needed for this project, nor have access to the same level of technology as the former sponsors. Several analysts have also questioned whether the new consortia will be able to manage the non-commercial project risks as effectively. WEAK GAS MARKETS INCREASE OFFTAKE RISKS Commerical risk for this project runs high because of the underdeveloped natural gas markets in Peru. Electroperu is currently negotiating take-or-pay contracts with electricity generating company Endesa of Spain, but has yet to line up a firm buyer for gas output, initially estimated at 200,000 Mcf/d. Additional take-or-pay contracts with other industrial consumers are also in the works, but remain uncertain. October Update: Citibank
Says Financing Package Ready by 2002 December 2001 Update Ex-Im Bank Guarantees Loan to Pluspetrol Peru In response to this financing, prominent indigenous and environmental groups from Peru and the US sent a letter to ExIm in December urging the agency to suspend the loan on the grounds that this project violates ExIm's environmental assessment policy. Drilling Slated for April Downstream Public Hearings Temporarily Postponed Indigenous Congress Calls for More Time to Review the EIA. At the Congress, representatives of the Ministry of Energy and Mines and TGP both argued that the project is in the best interest of Peru. Following the congress, the Machiguenga Congress asked the Minister of Energy and Mines to order a new process of public consultation for both upstream and downstream EIAs. The Congress called for a 90 day period to assess the documents from the date of receipt of copies of the full EIA. They also asked the Minister to hold workshops in local communities to inform people about the potential impacts of the project. Gov't Approves Upstream EIA on Dec 17 The Downstream EIA is not yet approved but it likely to occur within 90 days from the November 2 public hearings. Indigenous organizations continue to assert that the Ministry should postpone approval until March 14, 90 days after they received a full copy of the EIA. Upstream and Downstream EIAs not Made Available
to Local Communities in a Timely Manner Local organizations have asked for independent technical assistance in
assessing the EIA and preparing an effective response. In response, a
consortium of NGOs and technical experts formed in late December to analyze
both the Upstream and Downstream EIAs and to offer their findings to COMARU
at community workshops in February. They want to independent study of
the project EIA to be commissioned and copies of the findings provided
to them. Ironically, Pluspetrol responded to this demand by offering to
pay lawyers to work with local communities. Camisea Draws French Interest |
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