Will a Taliban victory advance TAPI pipeline with ECA support?

(Natural Gas World, Vancouver, 19 October 2021) The Taliban’s ascent is driving renewed discussion about the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said on August 18 that TAPI is a “long-term priority project” that the Taliban fully supports. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, energy companies have pondered routes to send natural gas from gas-abundant yet land-locked Turkmenistan to energy-poor Pakistan and onward to India. The Berdimuhamedov government of Turkmenistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have made this pipeline a priority for years, but it has long been on life support, with the project’s press releases failing to obscure its grim deficits. the project is strapped for cash. The ADB has indicated it will contribute $1 billion in loans. The Turkmen government, grappling with a massive economic crisis, has risibly pledged $1.675 billion. The remainder is envisioned to come from export credit agencies and commercial lenders, all lending individually to the four governments and relying on sovereign guarantees from each country. What is an Afghan sovereign guarantee worth?