(Financial Times, Brussels, 29 October 2023) The UK and EU will push the world’s richest countries to end subsidies for foreign oil and gas operations and coal mining at a closed-door OECD meeting next month, according to people familiar with the matter. The proposal to cut off the biggest foreign source of public finance for fossil fuels is expected to spark heated negotiations at the OECD’s Paris headquarters. The move builds on a commitment by some OECD countries to align public finance institutions with Paris agreement goals to limit global warming to well below 2C and ideally 1.5C above preindustrial levels. But the effort to end subsidies for foreign projects will draw attention to the prevalence of domestic subsidies for oil and gas industries, even as a global deal to end fossil fuel production without the emissions captured at the upcoming UN COP28 climate summit looks increasingly unlikely. Ending export credit agencies’ provision of loans and guarantees for fossil fuel projects would be “an essential first step to keeping our international climate goals within reach”, said Nina Pušić, an export finance climate strategist at the US environment campaign group Oil Change International.
OECD
The BRICS come of age [But what role for ECAs?]
(Project Syndicate, Cairo, 18 August 2023) by Hippolyte Fofack, Chief Economist and Director of Research at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). Given the BRICS’ economic success, more than 40 countries have shown an interest in joining the group and 22 have formally applied for membership. Expansion, trade and investment facilitation will be high on the agenda of the group’s summit scheduled for August 22-24 in Johannesburg. They include many issues on which the bloc’s views diverge from those of the G7, such as sustainable development, global governance reform (especially reform of the IMF), and de-dollarization. An enlarged grouping could deepen trade and settlement in local currencies, accelerate de-dollarization, and lead the transition to a more multipolar world. The economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the group – called the BRICS since the addition of South Africa – contributes more to global GDP (in purchasing-power-parity terms) than the G7. Since 2014, Russia’s trade with G7 countries has fallen by more than 36%, owing to unprecedented Western sanctions, while its trade with the other BRICS has increased by more than 121%. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China and India alone will generate about half of global growth this year. With geopolitical tensions running high, and the weaponization of the dollar for national-security purposes continuing to escalate, the BRICS have taken on new significance, offering trade diversion and other relief to weaken the effectiveness of sanctions and fast-tracking the transition to a multipolar world. Read the Summit Declaration here.
OECD Modernisation of the Arrangement on Export Credits
(Sullivan&Cromwell LLP, New York, 10 August 2023) On July 14, the OECD published the revised text of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits (the “Arrangement”). This forms part of the landmark modernisation of the Arrangement, as previewed in March of this year. The revised text of the Arrangement is intended to allow export credit agencies from participating countries to support a wider range of climate-friendly and sustainable projects on more flexible terms. The main changes are focused on (1) expanding the scope of “green projects” that benefit from more favourable terms; (2) extending repayment terms and introducing greater repayment flexibility; (3) simplifying the Arrangement; and (4) introducing a more robust transparency regime. [As noted in our June 2023 What’s New, the agreement does nothing to restrict oil and gas financing. OECD ECAs supported fossil fuel exports by an average of $41 billion from 2018 to 2020, almost five times more than their clean energy support ($8.5 billion) over the same period. It remains to be seen if allowing for more climate friendly and sustainable finance actually makes it happen.]
OECD amends export credit agency arrangement to boost green trade
(Institue of Export & Int’l Trade, london, 20 July 2023) The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has modernised the terms of its Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits to allow export credit agencies (ECAs) covered by the arrangement, which includes UKEF in the UK, to extend more generous incentives for climate-friendly transactions. The OECD describes the Arrangement as a “gentlemen’s agreement” between participants, which include Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the UK and the US. Under the new rules, UKEF will now be allowed to offer better or longer repayment terms and more flexible finance structures for more renewable and green transactions. The new OECD arrangement follows a proposal from EU countries to do more to encourage green trade and climate-friendly transactions. It includes an expansion of the scope of green or climate-friendly projects eligible for longer repayment terms (eligible under the “Climate Change Sector Understanding” or CCSU). These include projects related to environmentally sustainable energy production; CO2 capture, storage, and transportation; transmission, distribution and storage of energy; clean hydrogen and ammonia; low emissions manufacturing; zero and low-emission transport; and clean energy minerals and ores.
How Major Economy’s ECAs are Breaking their own Climate Change Pledges
(Byline Times, London, 16 June 2023) OECD countries are continuing to pour tens of billions of pounds into fossil fuel projects, despite their obligations to switch to clean energy sources. Advanced economies are breaking their own climate change obligations by investing massively in fossil fuels rather than switching to clean energy sources, according to a landmark new report. The OECD’s export finance initiatives are in contravention of internationally-determined climate change obligations. In 2021, 39 governments signed the Clean Energy Partnership at the COP26 conference in Glasgow, an agreement which committed to “driving multilateral negotiations in international bodies, in particular in the OECD, to review, update and strengthen their governance frameworks to align with the Paris Agreement goals”. Yet despite 52% of OECD countries having signed the Partnership agreement, fossil gas received 30% of all OECD export finance between 2018 and 2020. The report confirmed that “despite long standing commitments to align financial flows with climate goals, public finance and, in particular, export finance remains skewed in favour of fossil energy”.
OECD allows support for fossil-based technologies under agreed ‘climate incentives’
(Price of Oil, Paris, 23 June 2023) The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently agreed on terms and conditions for climate-friendly export financing as part of its revised Climate Change Sector Understanding (CCSU). While the agreement enables incentives for renewable energy projects like solar and wind, it also provides incentives for hydrogen and ammonia, including fossil gas derived hydrogen, and fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The agreement does nothing to restrict oil and gas financing. The OECD’s export credit agencies are the world’s largest international public financiers of fossil fuels. Recent analysis by Oil Change International shows that OECD countries supported fossil fuel exports by an average of $41 billion from 2018 to 2020, almost five times more than their clean energy support ($8.5 billion) over the same period. As such, OECD Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) play a critical role in propping up high-emitting projects, such as LNG infrastructure, which in turn shapes our future global energy system. For example, OECD ECAs have supported 56 percent of new hazardous liquified gas (LNG) export terminal capacity built in the last decade. According to International Energy Agency (IEA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, maintaining a 50% chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C requires an immediate end to investments in new oil, gas, and coal production and LNG infrastructure. This underlines an urgent need for the OECD to, as called for by over 175+ CSOs, end export support for new fossil fuel projects.
African sovereign debt poses challenges for ECA activity
(TFX News, London, 31 May 2023) The spectre of increasing sovereign debt has the potential to swamp future export finance deals and projects in several African jurisdictions. The changes to the OECD Arrangement on officially supported export credit financing put forward in March this year has been ‘music to the ears’ of all those in the industry calling for fundamental reform. We expect to hear more detail from the OECD in July, but from the provisional announcement it looks like tenors on certain transactions will be extended and repayment schedules relaxed for deals in certain sectors, giving greater impetus to deals and projects in the energy transition arena as well as providing a boost to social infrastructure transactions. Many African markets are seen as being challenging largely because of a range of serious risks – and the main ones are often cited as: the debt trap, coups, civil war, terrorism and political risk. In fact, at a recent TXF conference I learned that there are currently 68+ armed conflicts taking place across Africa – when I had originally estimated 40. This announcement has been strongly welcomed by those working in emerging markets, and particularly those active in African markets where so much basic infrastructural and social project work is required … and where ECA-backed finance will be key.
Export credit market shows strong growth: Berne Union
(Reinsurance News, Brighton, 15 May 2023) Berne Union, the global association for the export credit and investment insurance industry, has reported that its market showed “strong growth” across business lines in 2022 and a fall in claims paid overall. Highlights from the year’s data show that the export credit industry supported $2.83 trillion of cross-border trade and investment with an additional $68.6bn in non-cross-border support for exporters. Berne Union notes that growth has been supported by the return of significant transactions in the transportation sector as well as a large expansion of manufacturing sector project. The report notes that renewable energy transactions also continue to increase and are close to doubling 2019 levels, while commitments for natural resources continue to decline now at just 33% of their 2019 levels. Total claims paid fell from $9 billion to $7.6 billion over 2022, following a notable drop in MLT transportation claims which had spiked in the first stages of the pandemic. [However as noted in other articles of this issue of What’s New, ECAs poured 77% of their spending into fossil fuel projects between 2018 and 2020, making claims for increased renewable energy transactions almost irrelevant! ]
OECD ECAs urged to scale up climate ambitions
(Global Trade Review, London, 24 May 2023) The export credit agencies (ECAs) of OECD countries should take more ambitious action to protect the climate after pouring 77% of their spending into fossil fuel projects between 2018 and 2020, a campaign group has argued. OECD members pumped an annual average of US$41bn into fossil fuel exports during the three-year period, totalling almost five times the amount of financing provided for clean energy, according to NGO Oil Change International. The report uses energy finance data for OECD members with ECAs which held assets above US$1bn between 2018 and 2020. “This directly contradicts internationally agreed climate goals, including the Paris Agreement objective to align financial flows with the low-carbon energy transition,” says the organisation, which campaigns for an end to public financing for polluting energy sources. ECAs have come under increased scrutiny for their role in fossil fuel finance in recent months, and campaign groups called for strict curbs on such financing as part of the modernisation of the OECD framework on export credits, announced earlier this year. OECD Arrangement participants are meeting in Paris this week to begin drafting the text of the updated framework. It will likely result in an expansion of the types of projects classed as climate-friendly to include clean hydrogen and ammonia, low emissions manufacturing, zero and low emissions transport, and clean energy minerals and ores. The OECD Arrangement’s announcement of the modernisation package did not include any measures on limiting oil and gas support.
OECD countries reach historic agreement to modernize export credit support
(Trade Finance Global, London, 7 April 2023) A modernisation package agreed in principle by participants will specifically allow countries to offer greater support for green projects while also expanding the use of export credits in the context of an evolving world economy and an increasingly competitive landscape. Within the package of reforms, the Participants agreed to expand the scope of green or climate-friendly projects eligible for longer repayment terms, as permitted under the Climate Change Sector Understanding (CCSU). “The modernisation package agreed by Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits is a great milestone to help increase the impact of trade and finance flows on securing our climate objectives,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “It will allow the scaling up and a better targeting of public and private finance to support climate-friendly investments and help us meet our global net zero emissions objective.” This reform is expected to come into effect later this year, once Participants complete their formal internal decision-making processes and agree to the new Arrangement text. [As noted in the next What’s New article, OECD ECAs have a long way to go to brag about reducing the current $1 to $7 ratio of renewable to fossil fuel project support!]
